NOTE THAT THIS IS THE MEETING ROOM SESSION
When quantitative risk analysis is performed for project cost
contingency in capital project world, discrete risks are often ignored as
focuses are often on risky items with the "continuous distribution".
Those independent, uncorrelated and rare-event driven risks, however, often
than not are the culprits that throw the projects upside down. To compensate
and to increase the probability of project success, the Management Reserve Fund
hence is generated in addition to project contingency.
How to properly capture the effects of those discrete risks and their
impacts on projects' outcome, what methodology should be used to document and
simulate these types of risks are the combination of arts and sciences. This
set of presentation provides illustrations with real case studies to showcase
the methods and techniques for this application.
About John Zhao, MSc:
With a total of 28 years' experience in the industry of petrochemical
and oil & gas, John had spent 8 years with international contractors in
Middle East, 7 years with some renowned EPC firms in Canada and past 13 years
with oil & gas owner companies before he set up his own consulting
practices (Riskcore Ltd.) in 2016. His experiences included lump-sum bidding,
field engineering, contracts management, cost engineering, PMO and risk
Holding MSc. (Distinction) and BSc. (Honors)
from England, John built the proprietary RISCORTM model and has presented on
the world stages in various conferences, including talks at Canadian Institute
conferences, SPE in Denver, Palisade in London and Miami, IQPC in Abu Dhabi and
AACE in Las Vegas & New Orleans.